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Lawrence McDonald, author of "A Colossal Failure of Common Sense" and "How to Listen When Markets Speak." The recent stock market rally and the surprisingly resilient U.S. economy are reliant on an uneasy balancing act between the U.S. Treasury market, the oil market and struggling regional banks, according to one bestselling author and market risk expert. Larry McDonald, author of "A Colossal Failure of Common Sense" about the downfall of Lehman Brothers, told CNBC that another spike in inflation could have major repercussions through the U.S. economy. Many regional banks have a high amount of long-term bonds and loans on their books that will go down in value if yields rise. McDonald's warning, and his new book, "How to Listen When Markets Speak," come with the stock market hovering just under record highs and the Dow Jones Industrial Average flirting with the 40,000 level.
Persons: Lawrence McDonald, Larry McDonald, Lehman, McDonald Organizations: U.S . Treasury, Lehman Brothers, CNBC, Dow Jones Locations: U.S
Read previewThe US economy may be going strong, but the commercial property market is still in trouble. AdvertisementA $2.2 trillion mountain of commercial real estate debt is expected to mature by 2027, bringing a wave of potential distress as landlords refinance buildings at much higher rates. According to McDonald, the trillions in real estate debt barreling toward maturity, along with a $1.9 trillion pile of corporate debt, will force the Fed to cut rates this year. "Covid changed how people work [...] and then interest rates ran up very rapidly. Lower interest rates will save some buildings, some property owners, but not a majority of them.
Persons: , Larry McDonald, McDonald, Don Peebles, Peebles, Covid Organizations: Service, Business, Fox Business, Washington D.C, Peebles Corporation Locations: Washington, New York City
Watch CNBC's full interview with Tom Lee and Larry McDonald
  + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Tom Lee and Larry McDonaldHosted by Brian Sullivan, “Last Call” is a fast-paced, entertaining business show that explores the intersection of money, culture and policy. Tune in Monday through Friday at 7 p.m. ET on CNBC.
Persons: Tom Lee, Larry McDonald, Brian Sullivan, Organizations: CNBC
Brendan McDermid | ReutersThat cracking sound in financial markets isn't the typical kind of break, where one asset class or another fractures and gives way. "The cost of capital is going up, companies are going to have to refinance at a higher rate." That sentiment was buttressed this week, when at least four central bank officials either endorsed hikes or indicated that higher rates would be staying in place for an extended period. Consumers, for one, are feeling the squeeze of higher rates on everything from mortgages to credit cards to personal loans. "Now, at some point, my guess is that markets will eventually get to cheap enough levels where you'll bring buyers in.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Quincy Krosby, Krosby, Larry McDonald, Treasurys, McDonald, It's, Joseph LaVorgna, LaVorgna, Donald Trump, I've Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Federal Reserve, Treasury, LPL, Labor Department, Wall, P Bank ETF, Congressional, Treasury Department, The, White House, National Economic Council, Nikko Securities Locations: New York City, Washington, U.S
Baby boomers are the big winners from the Federal Reserve's policies, Larry McDonald said. Years of low interest rates boosted asset prices, and now they can earn 5% from Treasury bills. AdvertisementAdvertisementMcDonald's X post made the point that higher rates have lifted yields on Treasury bills to more than 5%. As a result, baby boomers have the option to cash out their profits, invest in short-term government debt, and collect a solid, guaranteed return. While baby boomers are under fire for hoarding wealth, their spending in retirement could prove crucial in sustaining the economy and preventing a recession, market veteran Ed Yardeni argued this summer.
Persons: Larry McDonald, McDonald, Lehman, He's, boomers, Baby, That's, Ed Yardeni Organizations: Service, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon, millennials, Ukraine
Massive government spending is fueling inflation, according to markets guru Larry McDonald. "Washington is stepping on the gas and the brakes at the same time," he said Thursday. McDonald’s warning comes with the Federal Reserve’s chosen inflation gauge still running clear of its 2% target. "Let's 'fight inflation' with government spending up 10-15% year over year, a trending $1.7 trillion federal deficit for 2023," the Bear Traps Report founder said on X Thursday. "No one is calling them out… Washington is stepping on the gas (colossal deficit spending) and the brakes (epic rate hikes) at the same time," McDonald added.
Persons: Larry McDonald, McDonald, Biden, Nobel, Paul Krugman Organizations: Federal, Service, Fed, Biden, American Locations: Washington, Wall, Silicon, America
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBoat stocks sinking could be a warning sign for high-end consumers, warns Larry McDonaldHosted by Brian Sullivan, “Last Call” is a fast-paced, entertaining business show that explores the intersection of money, culture and policy. Tune in Monday through Friday at 7 p.m. ET on CNBC.
Persons: Larry McDonald, Brian Sullivan, Organizations: CNBC
The US government has spent some $28 trillion since 2020, causing its debt to surge to a record of almost $33 trillion. The spending binge has created a "mind-blowing hole" in the nation's public finances, according to Larry McDonald. Earlier this year, experts like Ray Dalio and Nouriel Roubini have also warned of the risk of a debt crisis in the US. Fiscal spending has skyrocketed since the pandemic and shows little sign of slowing — and this has created a "mind-blowing hole" in the nation's finances, according to markets guru Larry McDonald. "Another way to improve debt to GDP ratios is through hidden debt reduction i.e.
Persons: Larry McDonald, Ray Dalio, Nouriel, that's, It's, McDonald isn't, Nouriel Roubini, , McDonald Organizations: Service, Fitch, Federal Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon
A 40% plunge in Apple's bonds highlights the risks facing banks' debt portfolios, according to Larry McDonald. The markets guru highlighted risks tied to mortgage-backed securities, which are on track for a third annual decline. McDonald seemed to suggest that if the bonds of top-rated companies such as Apple could take such a knock from rising interest rates, declines in the broader debt market could be sizable. MBS securities are closely related to mortgage rates. The US average 30-year mortgage rate surged to a 23-year high of almost 7.5% this month, indicating the scale of price displacement in the mortgage debt market.
Persons: Larry McDonald, Bonds, McDonald Organizations: Service, Fed, Silicon Valley, Apple, MBS, BlackRock's, Atlanta Locations: Wall, Silicon
Americans can't get a break financially, largely thanks to higher interest rates and "greedflation." The US economy may be in good shape, but Americans are getting squeezed from all sides. On top of that, it's become more expensive to pay back debt in a world of higher interest rates. US mortgage rate are at 23-year highsHigher interest rates influence mortgage rates. Mortgage rates tend to fluctuate with 10-year Treasury yields, given lenders typically tie rates to the yield of the 10-year bond.
Persons: it's, Freddie Mac, Fitch, Larry McDonald, Paul Krugman, That's Organizations: Morning, Federal Reserve, U.S, AAA, Brent, West Texas Intermediate Locations: Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, Russia
Why ChatGPT could spark a new bull market
  + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +5 min
Phil Rosen here, still poking around OpenAI's new ChatGPT iPhone app. The rise of ChatGPT and subsequent AI boom could solidify the recent strength in stocks as a new bull market, according to market veteran Ed Yardeni. In a recent note, the strategist said equities' strong start to the year isn't just a bear market rally, but that it indeed marks a new bull regime. If the Fed mistakenly pauses and then resumes hiking as inflation persists, the music could stop for high flying AI stocks. Mega-cap tech stocks are "overbought" and their rally could stall out soon.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe're seeing some of the most disturbing economic trends since COVID, says author Larry McDonaldKate Kelly, New York Times reporter, Larry McDonald, The Bear Trap Report founder, and CNBC's Leslie Picker join 'Last Call' to discuss the latest comments from Janet Yellen on the banking crisis, the ongoing debt ceiling debate, and more.
The S&P 500 will plunge by almost 30% to around 3,000 points by December, Larry McDonald has warned. He sees less government spending, slimmer corporate profits, and banking pressures as key drivers. McDonald made a similar call in early March, when he declared the stock market could tank 30% within the next 60 days. The prospect of less spending and investment, stricter lending, steeper debt payments, and greater unemployment bodes poorly for corporate profits and stock prices. Instead, he recommended beaten-down, cyclical stocks in sectors such as energy, and hard assets such as gold, silver, and platinum.
Watch CNBC's full interview with Kate Kelly and Larry McDonald
  + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Kate Kelly and Larry McDonaldKate Kelly, New York Times reporter, Larry McDonald, The Bear Trap Report founder, and CNBC's Leslie Picker join 'Last Call' to discuss the latest comments from Janet Yellen on the banking crisis, the ongoing debt ceiling debate, and more.
US stocks advanced Friday as investors see the potential for a deal that raises the $31 trillion debt ceiling. Stocks were on course for a weekly win with the S&P 500 hitting a nine-month high. Gains on Friday would add to this week's advance that lifted the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite to nine-month highs. Elsewhere in Washington, negotiators representing President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy were set to continue talks this weekend over lifting the $31 trillion debt ceiling that's needed to avoid a debt default. Bank of America warned on mega-cap tech stocks, saying a "big asset bubble" in growth shares is building.
US stocks fell Friday after talks in Washington over raising the debt ceiling were paused. "We've got to get movement by the White House and we don't have any movement yet," House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said. Stocks earlier this week hit a nine-month high on hopes a debt-limit deal was in reach soon. Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said talks with the Biden administration had reached a standstill. "We've got to get movement by the White House and we don't have any movement yet," McCarthy said at the Capitol, according to the Associated Press.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed has to really 'tone it down' to prevent financial instability: Bear Traps' Larry McDonaldLarry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the fallout from the First Republic banking crisis, the Fed, and more.
Larry McDonald has warned carefree tech investors are "smoking in the dynamite shed." The founder of "The Bear Traps Report" expects further banking turmoil to tank the stock market. Early signs of a credit crunch and ongoing turmoil in the regional-banking sector suggest there's more trouble ahead, he said. "From credit cards to all different types of companies, credit default swaps are rising on many different financial institutions," he continued. Credit default swaps (CDS) serve as insurance against a company defaulting on its debts, and become more expensive as the perceived risk of a default grows.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFirst Republic hits all-time low: Stock plunges nearly 50% after big deposit dropHosted by Brian Sullivan, “Last Call” is a fast-paced, entertaining business show that explores the intersection of money, culture and policy. Tune in Monday through Friday at 7 p.m. ET on CNBC. Larry McDonald, The Bear Traps Report, joins the show to discuss First Republic Bank shares plunging.
From stocks to commercial real estate, several parts of financial markets are on shaky ground. Here are the 10 wildest predictions about asset prices and the economy over the past quarter. Grantham said the prices of stocks, bonds, real estate, fine art, and other investments surged to unsustainable highs during the COVID-19 pandemic. Crypto: an 'apocalypse' is coming for digital assets"Dr. Doom" economist Nouriel Roubini isn't hopeful about the crypto industry. "I think it will spread into commercial real estate as banks become more reluctant to lend," Cooperman said.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Nasdaq's really ignoring the credit risk, says Bear Traps' Larry McDonaldLarry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss whether the economy's seen the worst of the fallout from the banking crisis and more.
Equity markets are likely to decline sharply within 60 days, said market guru Larry McDonald. That's because, as credit risk is rising, investors continue to focus on markets fads like AI. The Nasdaq, which has outperformed the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average this year, is ignoring this credit risk, McDonald added. A similar pattern has played out before, with stock investors failing to assess risks as early as other investors do, he said. In recent days, others have also warned of a stock market crash.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSilicon Valley Bank trouble brought more attention to other troubled banks, says Larry McDonaldLarry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss shares of Deutsche Bank sliding after credit default swaps spike.
The US central bank has lifted borrowing costs from near-zero to just under 5%, starting with its initial raise on March 16, 2022. Lender Silicon Valley Bank failed and FTX imploded after borrowing costs rose. "Stocks had become reliant on low interest rates as a crutch," Dan Kemp, CIO at Morningstar Investment Management, told Insider. "If valuations had been lower, then the reaction to the Fed's rate hikes would've been far less severe." Rising interest rates in a particular country tend to strengthen its currency, because they attract foreign investors seeking higher yields.
Here's what SVB's sudden demise means for markets, the US banking sector, and interest rates. That capped a turbulent week that saw a botched fundraising attempt by Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and a $1.8 billion loss on its bond holdings, which ultimately triggered an old-fashioned bank run. Silicon Valley Bank's collapse exposed a serious risk many banks face in their business portfolios – the dependence on uninsured deposits. However, former Treasury chief Larry Summers took a less pessimistic view, saying SVB's collapse was "unlikely to be a broadly systemic problem." But as bad as it is, it's unlikely to trigger a repeat of the 2008 global financial crisis that set the stage for the Great Recession, according to analysts.
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